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Must know inormation about the coming dollar collapse
Peter Schiff has been on many of the financial shows. He usually gets shunned as being too pessimistic and they usually attempt to marginalize the man. In fact, this book was written about mid 2006 and the forecast collapse of the dollar is in progress today (Nov 1, 09). He offers evidence that casts clear doubt upon the government economic figures by explaining how they are derived and for what purpose they are manipulated. Schiff then goes on to offer how to build one's portfolio to defend, preserve, and create a good account.
In part, it is an attempt to steer you to his company, Euro Pac, which is his brokerage for foreign investments. But one can clearly use this advice to modify your investments through your existing brokerage, IRA, 401(K), etc. Or they can be contacted and contracted for specific advice. This book will scare the heck out of you. I am as loyal to our country as anybody, but this economy is in for a very serious melt down and this book will explain why it is happening and what you can do about it to protect yourself.
Good luck to all of us.
jc
The Man Who Predicted The Crash
Peter Schiff is one of the few stock brokers/economists that you can actually trust. This book will always be proof that his prognostications came true. The only thing that Schiff slightly missed was the timing. In this book you will learn where to invest your money (foreign stocks, precious metals). In 2009 he has been dead-on. Asian (especially China) stocks have been rising and will continue to rise along with precious metals. The only thing preventing another larger collapse in the United States is the dollar's reserve currency status, which has to be replaced sometime in the future as it continues to weaken since China and other countries are quietly getting out of Treasuries. Another great thing about Schiff is that he actually owns all of the stocks that he recommends to his customers. Hopefully in 2010 he will take Senator Dodd's seat in Connecticut and we will finally have at least one fiscally responsible person in the United States Senate.
Quite amazing when you think about it
Peter Schiff tries to sell his fringe right-wing propaganda about the so-called benefits of capitalism by dismissing all of the marvelous teachings of Lord John Maynard Keynes' "General Theory" (1936). For example he tries to argue that production, not consumption(or "effective demand"), is the engine of economic growth. And can you believe that he actually doesn't even know what inflation is, even though the media is all over the VERY accurate CPI numbers every three months or so. Not only that, but he dares to question the benevolence of our overlords at the fabulous Federal Reserve. Comparing arbitrary and politically motivated interest rate manipulation to price-fixing is completely absurd! What do you mean printing money causes prices to go up?! No no, you see it's the wage-price-spiral and those greedy speculators! Of course I know what I'm talking about, I watch CNBC!
A few things:
-I'm obviously joking.
-If you understood the inside joke with Keynes and "effective demand", I salute you.
-How am I supposed to write a review after everything's that's already been said?
With the benefit of hindsight, let me address some things that have been said about the book and Schiff's predictions in general. The first thing that keeps being said is that 2008 was a horrible year for many of Schiff's investment strategies. Staying true to the Austrian tradition, Schiff is no market timer and knows only what will have to happen. Not when or exactly how. Secondly there is an entire chapter on liquidity in the book, and anyone who had cash in late 2008 had quite an opportunity(2009 so far has been quite awesome for Schiff's investments).
Interestingly the more intriguing criticisms of Schiff came from a few Austrian economists in 2007(that would be Robert Murphy and Robert Blumen at [...], you'll have to search the articles yourself, sry). I bring this up because there is a sharp contrast between Schiff and the rest of the Austrians. Schiff isn't exactly at the theoretical forefront of the Austrian School, and probably doesn't have time to be re-reading the classics every week or so.
So yeah, Schiff goes and uses the words "classical" and "Austrian" economist as synonyms. To most it's irrelevant, but some people might flinch. The explanation of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory is short and simplified. It still gets a passing grade.
Blumen and Murphy both question Schiff's assumption that a trade deficit is a bad thing.
Blumen:
"A trade deficit as such does not necessarily indicate an unsustainable imbalance between production and consumption. All that a trade deficit means is that the deficit country is importing capital. If the imported capital is used to fund the development of the productive structure within the country, then the resulting financial claims are supported by production."
Now this is quite odd. The savings rate went negative and people used their houses as ATMs(things that Schiff mentions; things that we know happened), so how could the trade deficit not be growing because of consumption goods? I know it could be that Schiff was wrong, but it seems to fly in the face of all that we saw during the bubble(Blumen uses data to prove his point, but the study he refers to extends to only 2002).
Murphy's amazingly clarifying Rothbard's Island should be read by all(September 11 article). Because I must emphasize that Murphy isn't only a brilliant guy, but he's also right from a theoretical point of view. I'm pretty sure Murphy could get Schiff to agree with him quite easily if they just had a talk(*even* about the perpetual trade deficit).
Murphy:
"At this point I hope I've made it clear that manufacturing "solid" things is a silly goal, and that a very healthy economy could have short-term trade deficits. (In fairness to Schiff, I should acknowledge that he admits the US trade deficits of the 19th century were healthy -- though he doesn't make this small concession until page 160.)"
Amazingly Schiff *starts* his famous mortgage bankers speech of 2006 with this small concession. As for producing solid things, I don't think Schiff's an idiot. People have asked about this on his radio show, and he does concede that you can run an economy based on services(and then he usually gives the example of Switzerland's banking industry). The service sector in the US was clearly inflated to epic proportions by the bubble, so to say that that's gotta go isn't much different from saying that there needs to be a readjustment(obviously this isn't something we can deduce from truth axioms or anything, but c'mon). Surely Schiff might be wrong, maybe the bubble service sector will be replaced by a non-bubble service sector? Doesn't seem very likely.
I'm probably going to hell for digging this up, but the January article by Murphy does end up in some pretty hilarious predictions. To Murphy's credit he does change his mind in August.
...Oh god I just found more quotes that made me want to write a smashing response. Must resist... the temptation... fight... not writing criticism on Murphy...
...OK I'm good now.
Want theory? Go for [...]. Want good predictions and observations about the world around you? Go for [...]. Preferably go for both.
Obviously you shouldn't buy this book. You should buy the 2.0 version!
Good Read...
This book is a good read, not very helpful when trying to figure out what would be a good investment in bad times though.
RIGHT ON THE NAIL
This book accurately predicted the economic depression suffered in 2008/2009 and the "CURE" by the Fed that according to P Schiff is a temporary band aid that will lead to a greater depression, the only reason i do not give it 5 stars is because it does not explain thoroughly how he arrived to his conclusions, which are rooted in "Austrian economics" another book that offers more technical fundamentals is "The dollar crisis" by Richard Duncan, although not as an entertaining read as this one. I already pre-bought CRASPROFF 2.0.
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